Downstream Relays Demand and Industry Spatial Analysis in
1, pick up the appliance industry, foreign companies to withdraw from the general relay to return to growth
Relay is a kind of automatic control device whose output will change step by step when the input quantity (electricity, magnetism, sound, light or heat, etc.) reaches a certain value. In short, the relay is a "switch." But it is not a direct operation by humans, but an automatic, remote control switch for the weak control of the strong automatic switch.
Relay in the appliance product application
Data Source: Public information collation
Related reports: Chi Research Consulting released《2017-2023 China's relay industry in-depth research and investment prospects forecast》
General Relays are relays that can be used in one or more areas. It is mainly used in consumer electronics (such as home appliances) and industrial areas, of which home appliances are important downstream industries. More than 70% of the world's television, more than 80% of refrigerators, more than 90% of air conditioners, more than 90% of small appliances are produced in China, China's home appliance market on average accounted for more than 80% of world sales. Therefore, the domestic appliance industry boom directly affect the general relay market.
From 2015 onwards, due to the impact of shifting the macro-economic growth rate, reducing the willingness of residents to consume and the "three-for-one-one-plus-one" policy of supply-side reform, the domestic appliance industry went to stockpiles and shipments dropped sharply through 2016 In the second half of the year, the industry sentiment began to pick up, reversing the previous downturn. Output soared YoY (34.4% YoY and 52.5% YoY in Q4 and Q4).
According to the industry online monitoring data, air-conditioner shipments in the second half of 2016 increased by 30.2%, reversing the downward trend of growth and driving the annual shipments to increase by 1.93% from the same period of previous year. The washing machine industry in the fourth quarter of last year, significantly accelerated the growth in shipments, led the full year shipments increased 6%. The shipment growth in the refrigerator industry started to increase in the fourth quarter of last year, driving the year-on-year shipments to increase by 1.65% from a year earlier.
Household air-conditioning inventory month value
Data Source: Public information collation
Quarterly production of household air conditioners
Data Source: Public information collation
2, to benefit from the construction of a global smart grid, power relays continue to exert force
The smart grid can greatly enhance the power grid to accept new energy capabilities to achieve a wide range of resource allocation to meet the diverse needs of users of electricity. Therefore, the development of smart grid has become the common choice of the power industry in the world to deal with future challenges, and is the development direction of power system in the 21st century.
Smart meters are one of the basic equipment for smart grid data acquisition. They undertake the task of collecting, measuring and transmitting raw energy data. They are the basis of information integration, analysis and optimization and information display.
Smart meter appearance
Data Source: Public information collation
Once the smart grid into the construction phase, the smart meter will have a huge market demand in the short term. In our view, with regard to the current smart grid construction in various countries, the market demand for smart meters is still very large, mainly due to the steady demand decline in the domestic market and the new demand for construction in overseas markets.
(A) the domestic market
China National Grid launched "strong smart grid" construction in 2009 and gradually promoted in three phases: 2009-2010 is the pilot phase of the planning; 2011-2015 is the all-round construction phase; 2016-2020 is the phase leading the upgrade and will be fully completed A unified smart grid, technology and equipment have reached the international advanced level. In 2016, a total of 67.18 million smart meters were added to the three tender projects of State Grid, a decrease of 26.2% over 2015. At present, the plan has already passed the stage of overall construction. The State Grid has achieved full coverage and the newly increased demand has weakened. At the State Grid's work conference at the end of 2016, the provincial electricity bureaus in 2017 submitted more than 20 million tendering plans. In our opinion, it is very hard for the domestic market to maintain its high market demand of more than 60 million units, and it is likely to decline to 3 to 40 million units in the next few years. According to the state grid company smart meter technical specifications, the life of smart meters must be greater than 10 years, and due to the different use of the environment, the power company will usually begin to be replaced in about 8 years, so there will be a replacement market from 2017 . Therefore, on the whole, we think the demand in the domestic market will be a change of "L type". Total demand will surely decline and then remain stable.
State Grid over the years the number of various types of smart meters tender (million)
Data Source: Public information collation
(B) overseas markets
New markets are mainly overseas markets. The EU has been implementing large-scale smart grid in the past two years with great demand for smart meters. At present, the installed capacity of electric meters and smart meters in the EU is between 10 and 14 million each year. It is estimated that the EU will install smart About 80 million meters, the average annual installation of 20 million. Europe as the company's second-largest sales market, the future will benefit.
EU smart grid development road map
Data Source: Public information collation
3, the traditional high-speed automotive relay growth, market share continues to improve
Automotive relays are relays dedicated to the control of automotive electronics and their primary function is to protect the control switch and to achieve automatic control. Automotive relay is widely used in the control of automotive, air conditioning, lighting, anti-theft, audio, navigation, wipers and automotive electronics instrumentation and fault diagnosis systems, it is second only to the sensor in the car is one of the most widely used automotive electronic components.
The global size of automotive relays is about 1.6 billion US dollars, is the largest market segment. Automotive relays are used exclusively for the control of automotive electrical relays, it is with the automotive electronics, electrical products developed. The automotive industry is the second largest market for relays following the telecommunications industry, with sales of automotive relays accounting for 18.4% of total relay sales.
In recent years, the number of relays needed for a car has been increased from 35 to 45 in order to meet the demand for enhanced environmental and safety performance. Automotive relay is widely used in the control of automotive, air conditioning, lighting, security, audio, navigation, airbags and automotive electronic instrumentation and fault diagnosis systems, it is second only to the sensor in the car one of the most widely used automotive electronic components.
Application of various relays in the car
Data Source: Public information collation
The market demand for traditional automotive relays is constantly increasing. First of all, the global automotive market in recent years to maintain low growth, annual output of about 90 million. China's auto production growth is ahead of global growth. In 2016, its total output reached 28.02 million units, an increase of 14.5%, ranking the first in the world. With the application of automotive electronics, bicycle relay usage is increasing. In 2005, the average car relay used in 20, while the current average amount of bicycles in 30 to 40 only. Not annual amount of maintenance market, the demand for new cars on more than 3 billion.
Global car production over the years (millions)
Data Source: Public information collation
China Automotive Production (millions)
Data Source: Public information collation
